This week’s midterm elections, so called because they take place two years into a president’s term in office, always offer the potential for significant change in Washington, D.C. Every member of the House of Representatives must run for reelection if they wish to keep their seat, and many Senators must run for reelection as well, depending on how far they are into their six-year term.
This year’s election cycle was more chaotic than normal as it took place against the backdrop of redistricting in many states based on the results of the 2020 Census. This forced many incumbent members of Congress to campaign in districts with a very different demographic makeup and even pitted some incumbents against each other by merging their former districts.
The votes are still being counted, and the electoral process will continue in the coming weeks. Republicans do appear likely to win the House of Representatives. The Senate is yet to be determined, and control looks to boil down to three races: Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Each party would need to win two of those states to secure a majority. It could take days to know the balance of power, and some races may be subject to recounts and court challenges. Below is a breakdown of the potential scenarios, and APGA staff will be monitoring and updating members as the vote counts continue.
- Republican House and Democratic Senate: Divided government typically leads to even greater partisanship and dysfunction in Washington, D.C. If Republicans control the House of Representatives, they will be aggressively pursuing oversight of the Biden Administration while also pushing through legislation that demonstrates the policies that they believe should be pursued to address the issues their voters care about. On the legislative front, this means the best-case scenario is that the Republican House and Democratic Senate can work together to pass the bills necessary to fund the government and respond to any potential emergency aid situations that may arise. However, the messaging bills likely coming out of the Republican House will not find any traction in a Democratic Senate with opposing viewpoints. Oversight will be the most effective tool a Republican House can use to call attention to areas where it disagrees with the Biden Administration. We can expect to see frequent and aggressive hearings with officials from the Executive Branch, as well as document requests designed to draw out information about the justification for and the process behind the policy decisions being executed by the Administration.
- Republican House and Senate: If the Republicans control the House of Representatives and the Senate, there will still be divided government and dysfunction given one party controls Congress and the other is in the White House. The House will conduct oversight of the President and his Administration, while also working with the Senate to push through legislation. Republicans will pass bills messaging their position on major issues, including energy. Current members of Republican leadership have made clear that bills to unleash domestic energy production, including support for permitting reform and expanding infrastructure, will be major priorities. However, it will be rare to see those bills become law even if Republicans are able to cobble together a unified front in the Senate and produce 60 votes because President Biden will still wield veto power.
Now that the votes have been cast, it is as important as ever for APGA members to engage in advocacy efforts. Make plans to attend APGA's upcoming Legislative Summit in Washington, D.C., which will provide a critical opportunity for members and others within a city’s leadership to visit with Congressmen and Senators. APGA staff is happy to assist in coordinating these meetings. Time will be well spent in D.C., as there will be the Board and Committee meetings and APGA staff will provide training on engaging elected officials. Details about the Legislative Summit
here.
As well, the next Congressional Management Foundation (CMF) webinar will be November 30 at 3:00 p.m. ET. It will be on the elections and advocacy, specifically on how the results could impact engagement. This is free. If you register but cannot attend at that time, a link will be sent of the recording. For more on this, as well as access to all the CMF webinar recordings, visit this
website.
Finally, be sure to attend APGA’s 2022 End of the Year Government Relations Recap, which will be December 7 at 11 a.m. ET. Information on this event, including how to register can be found
here.
For questions on this article, please contact Stuart Saulters of APGA staff by phone at 202-544-1334 or by email at
ssaulters@apga.org.