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This week, millions of Americans headed to the polls to cast their ballots in one of the most consequential elections for American energy consumers in modern history. Donald Trump has won a decisive victory in the presidential race and Republicans are poised to take control of the Senate by flipping several vulnerable Democratic incumbents’ seats. It is too soon to determine who will control the House, but we do know that whichever party wins the majority will do so by narrow margins. Take a look below for an overview of what APGA members can expect to see legislators prioritize heading into 2025. As a reminder, these potential scenarios are speculative based on policymakers’ past voting history, statements on the record, and campaign platforms. For comprehensive reporting on election outcomes, tune into your local news networks or check out post-election analyses from national news outlets.

Administration

Donald Trump has secured a clear victory in his campaign for the Presidency. Trump successfully broke through what is known as the “Blue Wall,” winning the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin while also staving off Democrats’ efforts to win potential swing states like Georgia. Votes are still being tallied in several states, but the Trump camp has already successfully earned the necessary electoral votes to send him to the White House in January. President Trump’s win means the regulatory agenda set by the Executive branch will shift drastically from what we have seen out of the Biden Administration over the last several years. His transition team will be hard at work over the next several weeks laying the foundation for his Administration’s policy priorities during the first 90 days of his presidency. We will also begin to see announcements from his transition team outlining his selections for the top jobs within his administration, positions that need to be confirmed by the Senate. Confirmations for these positions can sometimes take a significant amount of time depending on several circumstances related to the transition of power and political dynamics in the legislature. However, we are unlikely to see much opposition in the Senate as Republicans will have won a commanding majority in the chamber. 

A couple of potential names being talked about for the top jobs in agencies that impact APGA members are: 

Energy Secretary

PHMSA Administrator

EPA Administrator

Regardless of agency leadership transition timelines, we will likely see a slowdown in regulatory activity at the beginning of the year as President Trump sets the tone for his Administration’s regulatory agenda. In most cases, a pause on regulatory activity is standard, including delaying effective dates of rules not yet in effect. We expect to see shifts in priorities related to several rulemakings from the Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) including the Leak Detection and Repair Rule (LDAR) and other regulations from the Department of Energy (DOE). Rulemakings could be further impacted if Republicans secure majority control in both Chambers of Congress and plan to exercise their authority under the Congressional Review Act (CRA). The CRA allows Congress to pass and send resolutions for the future President’s approval to undo certain regulations promulgated by the previous administration. Many rulemakings impacting APGA members could be included in this category. Be on the lookout for more information related to potential CRA activity. Updates will be posted to the Community. 

Also, it is important to note that a change in administration does not mean a complete turnover in all agency staff. While there will be a period of transition for those currently occupying appointed and executive-level roles within the various Federal agencies, hundreds of career staff will remain in their positions. This is why relationship-building efforts with these individuals are vital to APGA members’ success.

House

As votes are still being counted in many competitive House races across the country, we do not yet know which party will win the majority of seats in the Chamber. We do know that once all of the races are called, the majority will most likely be razor thin. Experts have shared that these races may be decided as soon as Thursday of this week or potentially into the weekend. When a majority is determined, leadership in the winning party will move quickly to solidify the next class of committee leadership. APGA members are impacted by the actions of several House Committees with jurisdiction over energy and regulatory issues. The most relevant committees are House Energy and Commerce (E&C), House Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I), and House Natural Resources.

The party that ultimately holds the gavels will determine the policy priorities of each of these committees. If Republicans take control, we can expect to see a renewed focus on energy permitting reform legislation similar to what we saw included in the comprehensive bill, H.R. 1 “The Lower Energy Costs Act,” and a continued focus on reigning in regulations that harm American energy consumers. We could also see attempts to pull back tax incentives that favor one energy source over the other and instead proposals for all-of-the-above incentive opportunities. 

If Democrats win the gavels, we can expect to see potential committee action on Section 5 reform legislation, the MPACT Act, and continued movement toward a bipartisan bill to reauthorize PHMSA. Democrats will also likely revamp efforts that we have seen in previous sessions of Congress to incentivize investment in sustainable energy technologies. These technologies could include renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrogen, and methane leak detection and mitigation. 

More information to come as election results are reported. 

Senate

Republicans came out on top in the Senate, flipping several seats and winning control of vital committee leadership positions. The exact margins of victory have not yet been determined as votes are still being counted in several states. As in the House, APGA members are often impacted by legislative activity in a few committees of relevant jurisdiction- Senate Energy and Natural Resources (ENR), Senate Environment and Public Works Committee (EPW), and Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Bipartisan energy permitting reform has been a key priority for both Republican and Democratic members of Senate ENR. Chairman Joe Manchin (I-WV), who has long been characterized as a consensus builder on these issues, has announced his retirement leaving some uncertainty for the future of the committee that is known for achieving rare bipartisan agreement on contentious issues. With Republicans in control, Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) could potentially assume the chairmanship, if Senator John Barrasso (R-WY) wins his bid for Majority Whip. APGA members should expect to see a continued push to pass similar energy-permitting reform legislation with an emphasis on the issues that lie squarely within ENR’s specific jurisdiction so as to not complicate the legislative process. Also, expect to see additional efforts to highlight Section 5 reform legislation, the MPACT Act, as Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), a co-sponsor on the bill, is a member of this committee.  

Senate EPW has also taken up the issue of energy permitting reform in past sessions of Congress. Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is poised to assume the role of Chair on EPW and has indicated that this will continue to be a priority for the committee.

The Senate Commerce Committee is one of the most powerful committees in the Chamber with jurisdiction over a wide range of issues that impact a huge community of stakeholders. The Committee will most likely build upon efforts in 2024 to negotiate a reauthorization of PHMSA. 

Senate majority leadership will be focused on the upcoming tax fight as the Trump-era Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is set to expire at the end of 2024. This means several energy-related tax incentives will be on the menu for potential extension, including the Alternative Fuels Tax Credit. Also plan to see a focus on municipal financing policy. The Senate is also responsible for confirming Presidential appointees selected to serve in the Administration. Depending on how fast the transition occurs, this will be a key agenda item for the first several weeks of 2025.

What’s next? 

APGA staff will continue to monitor election developments and ensure that members of the public gas industry are informed and up-to-date on relevant activity in Washington, D.C. APGA staff also plan to engage closely with the Presidential transition team and the staff of the many new members of Congress. 

Plan to attend the next meeting of the APGA Legislative Committee for a more in-depth look at Congress’ priorities for the rest of the year and a conversation about what is to come in 2025, post-election. This meeting will occur virtually on November 12 at 2 pm ET. Please contact to Joshua St.Pierre for more information on the meeting.  

Also, with so much turnover in Congress, it is vital that APGA members begin the process of building relationships with newly-elected officials. APGA’s Annual Legislative Summit is a perfect opportunity to make these introductions or remind returning legislators about the importance of APGA’s advocacy priorities. Mark your calendars for January 27-30 in Washington, D.C. APGA staff are happy to coordinate the scheduling of your meetings on Capitol Hill and provide you with the necessary resources. Register here! 

For questions on this article, please contact Joshua St.Pierre of APGA staff at jstpierre@apga.org or 202-407-0015.