APGA Weekly Update July 21, 2016

07-21-2016 12:26

NGSA Provides Webinar on the Summer Outlook for Natural Gas

On July 19, Jenny Fordham, Vice President of Markets, for the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA),
hosted a webinar on the summer outlook for natural gas.

NGSA represents 14 integrated and independent natural gas producers and suppliers and is the only
Washington, D.C., natural gas association with a focus on the upstream segment of the natural gas
industry. NGSA’s mission is to promote the benefits of competitive natural gas markets, which result in
reliable, efficient transportation and delivery of natural gas.

Jenny took webinar participants through seven factors that will influence natural gas supply and
demand: weather, the economy, demand, storage, production, supply, and wild cards. She explained the
below.

Weather: NGSA is projecting a summer forecast that is three percent cooler than last summer, but eight
percent warmer than the 30-year average.
Economy: NGSA is projecting sluggish GDP growth of 1.4 percent
Demand: NGSA is projecting natural gas demand to increase six percent over last summer up to 69.2
Bcf/day, largely from an increase in natural gas for power generation. NGSA also projects an increase of
4.1 Bcf/day of new industrial demand between 2015-2020 from petrochemical, fertilizer, and steel plant
openings and expansions.
Storage: NGSA projects that storage will end at 3,875 Bcf by the end of season putting large downward
pressure on natural gas prices.
Production: Summer production is effectively flat with NGSA projecting 74.7 Bcf/day up from 74.6
Bcf/day.
Wild cards: The summer hurricane season has a mixed outlook, which could impact supply. However,
the stable natural gas market appears likely to be able to mitigate any such impacts.

Overall, NGSA is projecting a stable summer outlook from the consumer’s perspective.

Jenny’s presentation is available on the APGA website at www.apga.org/events/webinars. For questions
on this article, please contact Scott Morrison of APGA staff by phone at 202-464-2742 or by email at
smorrison@apga.org.

Deadline for Re-evaluating DIMP Programs Approaching

Distribution Integrity Management Program (DIMP) rules require that each operator conduct a complete
program re-evaluation at least every five years. This rule took effect August 2, 2011, so if you have not
yet performed a complete re-evaluation of your DIMP program, you must do so no later than August 2,
2016. The re-evaluation process must consider the results of the DIMP plan performance measures.
The basic steps in a DIMP re-evaluation are to evaluate trends in the performance measures to
determine whether the actions the operator is taking to reduce risks to system integrity are actually
reducing those risks. Operators should also update threat assessments to consider any changes to the
system that have occurred since the last time the DIMP program was updated. If the result of these
revised threat assessments shows a significant change in the level of risk for any threat on all or any
portion of the system, the re-evaluation process should consider whether additional actions to reduce
risk should be added or modified. To the extent any additional actions specified in the current DIMP plan
have been completed and successfully reduced the risk, those additional actions may be removed from
the operator’s DIMP plan.

Systems that used the Simple, Handy, Risk-based Integrity Management Plan (SHRIMP) to develop DIMP
written plans can also use SHRIMP to perform the program re-evaluation. The SHRIMP Users’ Guide
contains a detailed discussion of how to use SHRIMP for program re-evaluation. SHRIMP keeps a record
of each step in the re-evaluation process to document that the process was followed and generates a
new plan to replace the current written plan.

For questions on this article, please contact John Erickson of APGA staff by phone at 202-464-0834 or by
email at jerickson@apga.org.

APGA Signs Joint Letter to NCWM Chairman to Pass DGE Standard

On July 19, APGA joined an NGVAmerica letter with the American Gas Association, American Petroleum
Institute, American Trucking Associations, and others addressed to Jeremy Buendel, Chairman of the
National Conference of Weights and Measures (NCWM), calling on the organization to adopt a modified
diesel gallon equivalent (DGE) proposal.

NGVAmerica lead industry efforts in 2014 and 2015 to pass a DGE proposal at the NCWM Annual
Conference to allow fuel retailers to sell liquefied natural gas (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG)
to complement the existing gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) standard that allows retailers to sell CNG in
GGE units. Unfortunately, both years the proposal fell just short during votes at the NCWM Annual
Conference.

This letter to the Chairman notes four changes to the original DGE proposal by: amending the definition
sections and labeling language; removing the prohibition against retailers from selling in mass if it is
preferred; identifying additional data to support the unit values; and, stipulating that dispensers using
the gallon equivalent unit must be capable of showing mass on the pump or alternatively on a receipt.
The NCWM will be holding their annual conference next week from July 24-28, in Denver where the DGE
proposal will be voted on again. APGA will provide members with the results of the vote.

The letter is available here. For questions on this article, please contact Scott Morrison of APGA staff by
phone at 202-464-2742 or by email at smorrison@apga.org.

EIA Reports Storage Increase of 34 Bcf to Put Working Gas Storage at 3,277 Bcf

Here is the weekly EIA Summary Report issued on Thursday, July 21, 2016, which reports the week’s
storage report highlights for Friday, July 15, 2016. A 34 Bcf increase has been reported.
Working gas in storage was 3,277 Bcf as of Friday, July 15, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This
represents a net increase of 34 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 471 Bcf higher than last year at
this time and 559 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,718 Bcf. At 3,277 Bcf, total working gas is above
the five-year historical range.

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